2026 China Aluminum Foil Export Price Forecast

Entering 2026, the global aluminum foil market landscape continues to reshape. As a major exporter of aluminum foil coils globally, China's export price trends are closely watched by the industry. Based on current industry data, supply and demand dynamics, cost fluctuations, and the international trade environment, this article provides a comprehensive forecast of China's aluminum foil coil export prices in 2026, analyzing the core logic influencing prices to offer reference for industry practitioners and foreign trade enterprises.

China's aluminum foil product pricing follows an "aluminum price + processing fee" model. Exports are primarily settled based on LME London aluminum prices, while processing fees are dynamically adjusted according to market supply and demand, production costs, and product specifications. This model directly determines the fluctuation logic and core driving factors of aluminum foil coil export prices.

Considering various factors, China's aluminum foil paper price in 2026 are expected to exhibit a trend of "overall fluctuation, range-bound operation, and structural differentiation." The average annual price is projected to fluctuate between $4100 and $4400 per ton, slightly lower than the 2025 average export price of $4350 per ton, but with significantly increased quarterly volatility.

Core Support

The structural surge in demand is the core force supporting the export price of large rolls of aluminum foil, with the demand growth in the new energy sector being the most prominent. Global new energy vehicle production is expected to see a significant increase in 2026, with China's production reaching 8.5 million vehicles, a 32% increase compared to 2025. This growth directly drives up the consumption of battery-grade aluminum foil from 168,000 tons to 245,000 tons, boosting demand for high-end large rolls of aluminum foil.

Meanwhile, demand from traditional sectors such as packaging and air conditioning manufacturing is steadily increasing. Global consumption of packaging aluminum foil is projected to reach 528,000 tons in 2026, a year-on-year increase of 8.4%, while demand for air conditioning foil is expected to reach 382,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.8%, providing fundamental demand support for the export of large rolls of aluminum foil.

It is worth noting that overseas market demand is showing a differentiated trend. The European market, influenced by global warming, presents significant growth potential. Canada's temporary suspension of the 25% additional tariff on Chinese aluminum products, coupled with the restructuring of global aluminum trade flows due to the closure of the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz, has significantly enhanced the price competitiveness of Chinese aluminum foil coils in the Canadian market, potentially absorbing some of the diverted demand.

However, rising trade friction risks in emerging markets, with India, Brazil, Turkey, and other countries initiating anti-dumping investigations, have somewhat suppressed demand release, indirectly affecting export price trends.

Core Constraints

Drastic fluctuations in costs are the main constraint on aluminum foil coil export prices in 2026, with fluctuations in aluminum ingot prices having the most direct impact. Aluminum ingots, as the core raw material for aluminum foil production, account for 65%-70% of production costs. In 2026, the price fluctuation of the main aluminum ingot contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange reached 35%, far exceeding the 22% fluctuation in 2025.

In the first 11 months, spot prices fluctuated from 18,500 yuan/ton to 22,800 yuan/ton, with a maximum fluctuation of 4,300 yuan/ton. The price fluctuation cycle shortened to an average of 23 days, significantly increasing the difficulty of cost control for enterprises. Simultaneously, energy prices and auxiliary material prices rose in tandem. Electricity prices increased by 12% compared to 2025, and the prices of auxiliary materials such as rolling oil and additives increased by an average of 8.5%, further pushing up production costs and forcing passive adjustments to export prices.

The escalation of international trade barriers further compressed the room for price increases. In 2026, China's aluminum strip and foil exports faced 23 investigations under various trade remedy measures, an increase of 8 compared to 2025, with both the frequency and intensity of trade frictions reaching record highs. The US raised tariffs on Chinese aluminum strip and foil products from 7.5% to 12.8%, and the EU's anti-circumvention investigation involves approximately 350,000 tons of capacity, accounting for 42% of China's total exports to the EU.

Meanwhile, increasingly stringent EU environmental requirements, such as the RoHS directive and REACH regulations, have increased product certification costs by an average of 18%, forcing some small and medium-sized export enterprises to exit overseas markets. This adjustment in market supply structure indirectly affects price formation.

Key Variables

Structural adjustments on the supply side are the key variable affecting export prices in 2026. Domestic environmental policies will continue to tighten in 2026, with an estimated 1.8 million tons/year of outdated aluminum processing capacity exiting the market due to non-compliance with environmental standards, accounting for 3.2% of total capacity. This capacity reduction will alleviate oversupply pressure to some extent, supporting prices.

At the same time, the industry's resumption of work after the Spring Festival is proceeding in an orderly manner. Leading enterprises gradually resumed shipments from the third to the sixth day of the Lunar New Year, while small and medium-sized enterprises gradually resumed operations from the eighth to the fifteenth day. With the arrival of the peak season in March and April, the industry's operating rate will steadily recover, and the increased supply may exert some downward pressure on prices.

Policy adjustments also bring uncertainty. The RMB/USD exchange rate fluctuated by 7.2%, further exacerbating the uncertainty surrounding imported raw material costs and export quotations. This, coupled with expectations of rising aluminum prices due to global liquidity easing, amplifies price volatility.

Quarterly Forecasts

Based on the above factors, we make the following quarterly forecasts for China's aluminum foil roll exports in 2026:

First Quarter: Affected by delayed resumption of work after the Spring Festival holiday and the off-season for overseas demand, export prices will remain low, with an estimated average price of $4100-4200/ton. The main factors are pre-holiday inventory digestion, aluminum price fluctuations, and the slow resumption of work by small and medium-sized enterprises, resulting in a lack of upward price momentum. So it is a good time to buy aluminium foil.

Second Quarter: With the arrival of the peak season in March and April, downstream demand will be released intensively. Coupled with the recovery of industry operating rates and the conclusion of processing fee negotiations (packaging foil processing fees are expected to increase by 500-1000 RMB/ton), export prices will gradually recover, with an estimated average price of $4250-4350/ton. Prices for some high-end battery-grade aluminum foil rolls may reach over $4500/ton.

Third Quarter: Entering the traditional off-season for demand, coupled with escalating international trade frictions and increased volatility in aluminum prices, export prices saw a slight decline, with the average price expected to be between $4200 and $4300 per ton. At the same time, product differentiation intensified, with the price gap between high-end and ordinary products widening further.

Fourth Quarter: With stronger expectations for a global manufacturing recovery, coupled with year-end stockpiling demand from overseas customers, export prices are expected to rebound slightly, with the average price expected to be between $4300 and $4400 per ton. If aluminum prices experience a surge (as Morgan Stanley predicts, reaching $3250 per ton in the second quarter), the upper limit of the price range may be further exceeded.